The impact of COVID-19 on the sustainable intensification of forage-based beef and dairy value chains in Colombia: a blessing and a curse

The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the difficulties associated with the need to transition the cattle sector in Latin America towards achieving sustainability and created a “double crisis” of pandemic and climate change. The increasing demand for animal sourced foods and the need to address the negative environmental impacts of cattle production, including greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss and deforestation


Introduction
In 2020, COVID-19 was declared by the World Health Organization (WHO 2020) as a pandemic, affecting humankind in an unprecedented way.Since then, measures have been taken, and are continuing, by national governments to protect public health.These have included travel bans, temporary closures of public/ private establishments, confinement of individuals and nationwide lockdowns that have caused significant economic downturns.Compared to other sectors where negative impacts often become visible very quickly, it appears that agriculture and livestock have been little affected (FAO 2020a;ECLAC 2020a).However, this perception may not reflect reality in Latin America, since many of the effects have not been quantified due to monitoring difficulties, slow updates of databases and general data scarcity, or the effects have not yet been communicated (Burkart et al. 2020).Disruptions in agricultural value chains have been noticeable and are likely to grow over time (Burkart et al. 2020;FAO 2020b).Although most of the impacts are not yet visible or fully analyzed, and despite the increased cattle slaughter and beef exports in some Latin American countries in 2020 (Urrego 2021;Villamil 2020;Garza 2020), there have also been negative impacts.These include increasing input prices and reduced consumer demand which, in the short-term, affects the livelihoods of low-income cattle producers.Since the beef and dairy sector is key to food security, nutrition and livelihoods, it is crucial for the involved stakeholders to identify and understand present and potential negative impacts, and where possible implement actions to mitigate their effects.The COVID-19 crisis will indeed shape the future of Colombian food systems and improving resilience is one of the major challenges in the medium-to longterm.This is also likely to create opportunities along the beef and dairy value chains through, for example, formalization of processes and adaptation to changing consumer demands (Burkart et al. 2020).
Sustainable intensification of the cattle sector has been part of the political agendas of Latin American countries for at least a decade prior to the pandemic.The most important drivers have been increasing demand for animal sourced foods (OECD/FAO 2019), negative environmental impacts of some aspects of cattle production (FAO 2006;FAO 2018) and effects of enteric methane emissions of ruminants on climate change (FAO 2016).Sustainable intensification has become a central element for governments to meet the commitments made under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for greenhouse gas emission reductions.Sustainable intensification of forage-based cattle systems consists of 3 pillars (Rao et al. 2015;Rudel et al. 2015): (i) genetic intensification (the development and use of improved forages and improved animal breeds for increased productivity); (ii) ecological intensification (the development and application of improved farm and resource management options for increased efficiency); and (iii) socio-economic intensification (the development and improvement of policies, institutions, and markets to support and increase technology uptake).The transition towards sustainable intensification comes with numerous livelihood and environmental benefits, including income generation and diversification, food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, restoration of degraded lands and biodiversity COVID-19 and sustainable intensification in Colombia conservation (Rao et al. 2015), which contribute in turn to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (UN 2021).In Colombia, significant advances have been made in the past decade, such as the establishment of improved forages, protein banks or silvo-pastoral systems (Ganadería Colombiana Sostenible 2018), market improvements (Charry-Camacho et al. 2019;Ruden et al. 2020) and public policies (Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural 2019; Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural 2020a; Presidencia de la Nación Argentina 2018; Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganadería 2011).Annex 1 provides an overview on the achievements for Colombia as an example for other Latin American countries, focusing on public and private sector initiatives, public policy, finance mechanisms and market developments.Despite these advances and the yet limited visible effects of COVID-19 on the cattle sector, the pandemic is expected to have significant impacts on ongoing sustainable intensification efforts, i.e., when it comes to technology adoption, product differentiation, information sharing and financing (Burkart et al. 2020).
Our objective is to describe and discuss how the pandemic is affecting sustainable intensification of the cattle sector in Colombia, putting emphasis on both potential negative impacts and future opportunities.

Materials and Methods
A qualitative approach that included reviewing the trends in current literature (scientific and non-scientific), examination of archives and databases (from national and international organizations, public sector, and primary sources such as newspaper coverage), and ensuring personal communications with key representatives of the cattle sector (e.g.cattle producers, beef and dairy companies, distributors, public sector actors, researchers, input suppliers, credit providers) was applied to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the livestock sector in Colombia.This allowed us to gain a general perspective on the implications of the crisis, reflecting on how the subject is addressed by key actors, media, and relevant literature, providing us with a wider context on different perceptions, implications and responses.Data was obtained in 2020 and 2021, with personal communications taking place via email or telephone due to the public health measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic.We completed the analysis to cover three topics to assess and discuss the impacts at the levels of (i) markets and consumers; (ii) public policies and the value chain framework; and (iii) primary producers.In the discussion we provide our perspective on how it should be possible to mitigate negative impacts to take advantage of opportunities, and to support the sector in building resilience as well as in climate change adaptation and mitigation.

COVID-19 and sustainable intensification at the market and consumer level
Food consumers have been subjected to an economic downturn caused by COVID-19 with increasing unemployment rates, part-time work and salary reductions.This is evident especially in countries with little or no social safety net and a large proportion of employment being in informal jobs (FAO 2020a; ECLAC 2020b; OIT 2020), such as in Colombia (NielsenIQ 2020).According to the National Department for Statistics (DANE 2021a), the country's unemployment rate increased from an average of 10.5 % in 2019 to 15.1 % in April 2021 as a direct result of the crisis.In May 2020, 79 % of Colombian households were already experiencing financial difficulties (Kantar 2020) and it is projected that during 2020, the number of people living in poverty increased from 35.7 to 42.6 % and in extreme poverty from 9.6 to 12.8 %, respectively (DANE 2021d).These factors have reduced purchasing power, led to a lower demand for beef and some dairy products, and affected resource availability along the value chains (CONtextoganadero 2020a).
In the prevailing uncertainty, consumers have lost confidence and have been spending less income on lessessential items (Sullivan and Amos 2020).Although food demand is generally considered as not very elastic and to have little effect on overall food consumption, reduced purchasing power can often lead to substitution effects and changes in the food basket towards more affordable foods.The National Federation of Cattle Producers in Colombia (Fedegan) projected a partial substitution of beef with more economic protein sources, such as legume grains or poultry, at least in the short-to medium-term (CONtextoganadero 2020a).Beef consumption and cattle slaughter was estimated to have declined by ~2.5 % in the first quarter of 2020 (CONtextoganadero 2020b; DANE-ESAG 2020a; DANE-ESAG 2020b), and by 30-40 % in April 2020 (Manrique 2020), respectively.Although cattle slaughter appears to have recovered slightly in the first quarter of 2021, with a growth of 2.4 % compared to the same period in 2020, this increase was mainly related to exports (DANE 2021b), suggesting a negative effect of the pandemic on the national beef industry.The dairy industry has not been affected to the same extent, likely because most alternatives (e.g., soy or almond milk) are more expensive than cow milk.There has been some reduction for processed dairy products, such cheese and yogurt, which is largely related to school and restaurant shutdowns (Morais 2020;Durán 2020;González Bell 2020).
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, sustainable food production was rapidly developing in Colombia in response to a growing demand by more discerning and better off consumers (which still make up only a small minority of the rather price-oriented consumer base).These same consumers show a high willingness to pay for sustainable beef products (Charry-Camacho et al. 2019) that creates opportunities along the value chain (Burkart et al. 2021;Charry-Camacho et al. 2018).Several beef and dairy companies, NGOs and research institutions have developed, or are in the process of developing, differentiated beef and dairy products through certification or technical assistance and sustainable beef labels have already been launched (Annex 1).The pandemic might lead to 2 opposing effects (Trujillo 2020; Sullivan and Amos 2020).First, the substitution effect could lead to a declining demand for sustainable beef and dairy products in the short-term, since they are generally more expensive, and this would negatively affect the development of more sustainable value chains and the implementation of sustainable production practices at farm level.This effect has already been noted by private beef and dairy industries and has caused delays in the development or refinement of differentiation efforts.Since resources became scarce, projects have been stopped and employees terminated.A recent study by Ramirez et al. (2021) confirms that beef consumer preferences in Colombia have been affected by the pandemic, with a decline in beef consumption, especially amongst surveyed consumers from lowerincome households or those facing economic reductions due to the pandemic.Second, a more optimistic scenario considers that, once incomes recover in the medium-to long-term, consumer preferences will shift towards more sustainable products, improved traceability, food safety and animal welfare.This second scenario would boost the development of more sustainable value chains and the implementation of sustainable production practices, and both encourage and require investments on the part of the beef and dairy industries (Sullivan and Amos 2020; Manrique 2020).However, for most of the Colombian beef and dairy consumers, price will continue to play the most important role in consumption decision-making.

COVID-19 and sustainable intensification at the public policy and value chain level
Financial credits are a fundamental requirement for investments in sustainable intensification but are difficult to access for the many already indebted smallholder cattle producers with low-productivity farms.To mitigate effects of the pandemic, the Colombian Government (FINAGRO 2020) provided an emergency credit line in 2020 that helped cattle producers pay interest on existing credits to reduce bankruptcies.However, this credit line was not intended for new investments in sustainable production alternatives and thus did not provide incentives to revive pre-pandemic advances.To foster the adoption of sustainable production systems, the Government launched another credit line in 2020 for establishing silvo-pastoral systems with emphasis on improved tree species and the implementation of living fences.This is the first initiative of this type in the country (Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural 2020a) and it is expected to further advance efforts regarding sustainable intensification.
Another important factor for the transition towards sustainable cattle systems is access to rural extension and technical assistance.Despite the ongoing transformation of the rural extension system in Colombia through the SNIA (Sistema Nacional de Innovación Agropecuaria -National Agricultural Innovation System) law of 2017 (Gobierno de Colombia 2017), the reach of public rural extension is still very limited.The pandemic has aggravated this situation, leading to several consequences: (i) implementation of departmental extension plans (Planes Departamentales de Extensión Agropecuaria) had to be accelerated at the expense of effectively prioritizing land areas and crops for interventions; (ii) disruptions in procedures for requesting extension caused a mismatch of demand and supply (Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural 2020c); and (iii) limited on-farm extension combined with reduced access to productive inputs affected farm productivity, resulting in reduced farm incomes and credit repayment capacity.However, there have been positive developments too.Virtual extension efforts have increased with social media and local radio stations (Fedegan 2020;CONtextoganadero 2020c).Also, some Colombian dairy and beef companies, input suppliers, private agencies and supermarkets have developed their own rural extension and technical assistance systems, and many of these are focused on sustainable production (Annex 1).Although the impacts of the pandemic on their efforts are not yet fully evident, they include some COVID-19 and sustainable intensification in Colombia important setbacks.Nevertheless, on-farm visits, face-toface rural education programs (e.g., Alquería's Heirs of Tradition Program), and farm planning and monitoring (e.g.AngusAzul, GANSO) can only partly be provided or are being offered virtually, at the expense of producers with limited internet connectivity.
Research institutions and networks that focus on the development of sustainable production technologies, such as improved forages, have been facing budget reductions (e.g. the Colombian Forages Network) and there have been shifts of focus towards crisis mitigation rather than gradual improvements (CGIAR 2020; The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT 2020).This might lead to lesser progress in developing technologies and reducing knowledge gaps in the mid-and long-term.In addition, institutions in charge of implementing sustainable intensification piloting and scaling projects are facing reductions in their budgets and staff that will likely lead to delays in scaling-up processes.These setbacks can, however, also represent new opportunities since new elements can be considered in the reshaping or formulation of projects, such as a stronger focus on a potentially changing consumer demand.
Colombia has established numerous multi-actor initiatives for supporting sustainable intensification of the cattle sector, such as the Colombian Roundtable for Sustainable Cattle (Mesa de Ganaderia Sostenible) with its 15 regional roundtables, the Tropical Forest Alliance (TFA), which established the Zero-Deforestation Agreements (Acuerdos Cero Deforestación), and the Sustainable Colombian Cattle Project (Proyecto Ganadería Colombiana Sostenible), which ended in 2019 (Fedegan et al. 2020; Ganadería Colombiana Sostenible 2018; Mesa de Ganadería Sostenible Colombia 2019; Burkart and Urrea-Benítez 2020; Rodriguez 2020; Triana-Ángel and Burkart 2021).The pandemic is affecting these initiatives to different extents, including through reduction of budgets, limitations in reaching target groups, extended virtuality, delays in achieving agreements or in public policy development, forcing the involved actors to seek for alternatives.The implementation of the Zero-Deforestation Agreements, for example, has slowed down and the committed companies cannot properly visit their producers to verify compliance with the established agreements.To counteract these developments, the Colombian Roundtable for Sustainable Cattle launched a virtual seminar series (from May to August 2020) on sustainable cattle (Conversatorios sobre Ganadería Sostenible), focusing on elements like climate change, biodiversity, sustainable markets/consumption and rural extension (Mesa de Ganaderia Sostenible 2020), which reached over 20,000 attendees (Burkart and Urrea-Benítez 2020).
The increased use of virtuality for capacity building and rural extension has attracted an unexpected high number of participants, yet concerns about inclusiveness, quality (versus quantity) and the applicability of such virtually spread information remain valid.Around 52 % of the Colombian population have limited internet access (Revista Semana 2020) without the required equipment such as smartphones and computers.The proportion in rural areas, where the principal target group of cattle producers live, is likely to be substantially higher.A positive trend shows that internet use grew by 40 % during the pandemic (Morales 2020) and there were large increases in the number of both fixed (+300 %) and mobile access points (+1.5 million), compared to prepandemic levels of 2019 (Revista Semana 2021).Also, the Colombian Government plans further increases to reach 70 % of the population by 2022 (Revista Semana 2020).Despite these promising trends, internet access is a major issue that constrains the sustainable intensification of the sector.

COVID-19 and sustainable intensification at the primary producer level
According to ECLAC (2020a), the pandemic-caused downturn of the global economy, particularly in the United States, China, and Europe, has had negative impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean, affecting the trade of raw materials (volumes, unpredictable price changes).In Colombia, the US Dollar-Colombian Peso exchange rate increased by 12.6 % during the pandemic (DolarWeb 2021; Banco de la República 2021) (Annex 2).Both the Colombian beef and dairy sectors depend on imported agricultural inputs, such as forage seeds, feed concentrates, vaccines, salt, minerals and machinery.Some of these inputs, particularly forage seeds and fertilizer, are essential for the sustainable intensification of traditional cattle systems.Forage seed exports from Brazil, the principal tropical forage seed producer, decreased by 27 % between March and April 2020, and by 11 % compared to April 2019 (Legiscomex 2020).Data regarding forage seed imports into Colombia are not yet available but it appears that there has been both a reduced demand from the Colombian cattle sector and a reduced supply from Brazil.Urea fertilizer prices have on average increased by 9 % between March and April 2020 (DANE 2020a).In 2020, urea was more expensive in 35 % of the municipalities and in 2021 (until May), in 69.12 %, respectively (DANE 2020b;DANE 2021c).The combination of reduced input quantities and increased prices results in additional burdens for cattle producers to access the required means for sustainable intensification, leading to disincentives.
Owing to the effects of the pandemic, young cattle producers, who are potential investors in sustainable production practices, perceive less incentives for pursuing a future in the sector and thus might migrate to cities in larger numbers, aggravating the problems of generational transfer, already critical prior to the pandemic (Parra Cortés and Magaña Magaña 2021).Female cattle producers, who have crucial roles in the adoption of new technologies (Triana-Ángel and Burkart 2019) and often focus on deriving specialty products such as 'branded' cheese or yogurt, are likely to lose market access and be discouraged if dairy products are being substituted with non-dairy products, leading to lower household incomes and reducing the capacities for investing in sustainable intensification.

Discussion
During the last decade, Colombia has made significant advances in the transition towards a more sustainable beef and dairy cattle sector.The COVID-19 pandemic has caused adverse impacts on both existing and planned initiatives but also provides some opportunities for the future.The critical impacts are certainly the reduction of budgets in many of the involved research and development institutions, a temporary shift in priorities, reduced consumer incomes, substitution of beef and dairy products with other protein sources, disruptions in rural extension and technical assistance programs, and reduced ongoing monitoring of on-farm interventions and commitments.All of these disturb the implementation of sustainable production practices.Positive effects of the pandemic on sustainable intensification are an apparently increased consumer consciousness towards more environmentally friendly products, animal welfare, and traceability, which can be harnessed through product differentiation.While the shift towards virtual capacity building and rural extension can reach larger numbers of participants, internet accessibility and connectivity in rural areas remain challenging and lead to questions about inclusiveness.
To preserve the achieved progresses and to take advantage of new opportunities, actors at different levels, e.g.public policy, market, primary producer, should increase their support for sustainable intensification of the cattle sector despite the setbacks caused by the pandemic.The occasion represents a major opportunity with various confluent demands of local populations, such as increasing food security and sovereignty, ensuring incomes and livelihoods of the most vulnerable and affected population, promoting rural justice and redistribution, and addressing the national and international commitments of environmental protection, climate change mitigation and adaptation.Positive examples for this are the new credit line for the establishment of silvo-pastoral systems by the Colombian government, and the development of the GANSO label for sustainable beef.Both initiatives were launched during the peak of the pandemic in 2020.
Although this study focuses on Colombia, there are some similarities with other Latin American countries, such as Costa Rica and Argentina, not only in the similarity of their cattle systems but also their advances towards achieving sustainability.Other studies, although not directly related to sustainable intensification, have come to similar conclusions regarding the impacts of the pandemic on the agricultural sector.For example, Hammond et al. (2022) found that in several African and Asian countries, the measures employed during the pandemic have affected food purchase, product sales (volumes and prices), and access to productive inputs and markets, with a tendency towards more severe effects in those countries with stricter measures.Siche (2020), in a more general analysis, found that the pandemic had strong impacts on food supply chains, mostly regarding food demand, ultimately affecting the most vulnerable actors.Sridhar et al. (2022) conisder the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices and use of digital tools as suitable options for building a more resilient food system that can more easily absorb disruptions.